| Talk about an overreaction ? the market fell on the back of tech-weighted regional panic across the region. But there were other reasons not seen in the press. Retail were in a tizzy in the late afternoon on rumours that terrorist attacks are imminent in Bangkok, leading to an unexpected late afternoon sell-off. There is little news in the local press, so guidance is derived from US markets, which were up on lower oil prices (a smidge over US$48.50). Despite the SET?s fall on Monday, tech analysts seem pretty positive about the close. Just a tad below 645 is apparently good support and support for the market to run on decent news.
Financials are still looking very undervalued, and judging by institutional buying in the banks and larger fincos, they are of greater interest after 3Q04 numbers show banks in particular trading at enviable lows. In terms of the banking sector, look to the few expecting EPS growth in FY05, namely, BAY, BBL and SCIB. SCIB is very volatile given that the last day of trade of SCIB-C1 is today, so let the dust settle. BBL and BAY comprise few of the banks looking toward EPS growth next year. BAY?s will be on the back of aggressive loan growth and BBL?s on declining NPLs and improving margins. After all the hullabaloo is over with the expiry of SCIB-C1, SCIB as a stock look very interesting. It is trading on a PER of FY05 1x, decent EPS growth of 13%, a 7% yield and a multiple of 6x. Hedge funds have been suppressing the share price given shorting on the conversion of C1 ... annualize it, and it makes sense. Buy once the dust settles. While we are not super keen on the big fincos of the likes of NFS and TISCO given their schizophrenic banking aspirations, it must be said that TISCO looks interesting. The 23m shares of TOP at Bt10 which might be realised in 4Q04 speaks for itself.
Strategy going forward. We like financials as underperformers and year-end rally drivers given both low valuations and underperformance. Energy stocks such as PTT, BANPU and LANNA should be picked up on weakness. Petrochemicals will have very strong 4Q04 numbers, but sell-offs on a possible China slowdown may limit upside. For the short-term, freight rates are up again, and stellar results from PSL and TTA should see a pickup. ?
From บล.ซีมิโก้ | | เข้าชม: 1,128 |
|
